Zoë Schiffer: Emil Michael, you need to flip off your views on LinkedIn as a result of folks can see after they take a look at your cellphone.
Brian Barrett: Yeah, that is a tip for Emil Michael should you’re listening. After which, should you hearken to Uncanny Valley, which you need to.
Leah Feiger: And that is actually the Trump official that is type of main the warfare in opposition to Anthropic right here. He has these deep ties to the tech world and he is the Pentagon’s public enemy quantity one in every of anybody who’s attempting to cross the Pentagon. So the truth that, one, he has not possibly one of the best op sec on this planet? However two, is snug making this such a public battle, could be very a lot one thing to take notice as a result of it is not only a message to Anthropic in my thoughts. It is a message to anybody else who would dare query these insurance policies.
Brian Barrett: I need to go to one thing prime of thoughts. Have you ever all checked your Kalshi or Polymarket portfolios currently? How are we doing?
Leah Feiger: Nicely, I have not invested but in our Survivor winners, however quickly, quickly.
Brian Barrett: No, by way of issues which can be shocking however should not be anymore, prediction markets clearly have type of taken over a lot of our lives in so some ways by—I imply the final “our,” not the three of us.
Leah Feiger: The three of us truly textual content each single morning and go, “What’d you make on Kalshi final night time?”
Brian Barrett: Yeah. However shocking, not shocking, there’s a lot betting happening across the Iran warfare to proceed that thread. Proper now, one of many prime bets on Polymarket is “Will the Iran regime fall by June thirtieth?” Complete bets round 7 million {dollars} in that market alone.
Leah Feiger: That is so upsetting, Brian.
Brian Barrett: Yeah.
Leah Feiger: These are folks’s lives. I do not know. I perceive that a lot of this has turn out to be a gamified model of itself. I perceive that the inventory market and the best way that we achieve this a lot of all of this, however this feels additional gamified to me.
Brian Barrett: Nicely, and by way of folks’s lives, I imply, there was a giant controversy simply earlier this week about how Kalshi settled a wager or resolved a market. There was a 54 million greenback market on the fate of Iran’s supreme leader. I consider that they phrased it—Leah, appropriate me if I am unsuitable—they phrased it as, like, he’ll be out of energy.
Leah Feiger: That was precisely what occurred.
Brian Barrett: After which he was blown up by a missile.
Leah Feiger: So technically out of energy, however that wasn’t the wager.
Brian Barrett: As a result of you possibly can’t wager, and so they’re like, “We do not will let you wager on deaths right here.” So he is out of energy, however not. So they’re invariably betting on whether or not folks will die, simply discovering cute methods round it after which having a tough time resolving these markets, in order that’s an issue. The truth that there was a 54 million greenback bounty out on this man collectively from betters, together with one person referred to as MAGAMyMan, who had received $553,000 on the timing of all this. It’s outrageous. And I feel whether or not or not any of that is insider buying and selling, it is grotesque.
