Polymarket is reportedly refusing to pay out on bets associated as to whether the U.S. army will invade Venezuela, citing discrepancies in terminology.
The operator is at present disputing the mission to seize the previous president, Nicolas Maduro, who represented an invasion of Venezuela, and the corporate will solely settle a contract if the army really takes management of the nation.
One successful trader won $400,000 following Maduro’s seize after betting greater than $32,000 that the previous president could be faraway from energy by the tip of January.
This was buying and selling at a median of seven cents earlier than the market ultimately paid out at 100 cents when he was flown overseas.
As such, the thriller dealer received $400,000, however there may be controversy surrounding the wager relating to the definition of “invade.”
Polymarket states that it’ll resolve the “Will the US invade Venezuela by . . .?” prediction contract if the nation “commences a army offensive meant to determine management over any portion of Venezuela” by one among three dates.
As a result of it didn't occur. There is no such thing as a rip-off pic.twitter.com/FajenS6TyE
— tenadome (@tenad0me) January 7, 2026
A complete of $10.5 million has been wagered on the Polymarket contract predicting a US invasion of Venezuela. Most of those are on the deadline of January 31, whereas the remaining are based mostly on contracts that finish in March and December.
Polymarket isn’t the one prediction market to draw controversy these days, as Kalshi is going through a backlash.
Kalshi seems to have backtracked on one NFL wager
A number of days in the past, a tweet from analyst Dustin Gouker confirmed that Kalshi did not pay out a profitable wager on the San Francisco 49ers profitable over 10.5 video games in the course of the 2025 common NFL season.
wtf…individuals who wager 49ers win complete accurately had been solely reimbursed value and never winnings when it was graded flawed? They usually received’t simply eat it? pic.twitter.com/lsbzEyAt6Z
— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) January 7, 2026
“Individuals who wager 49ers win complete accurately had been solely reimbursed value and never winnings when it was graded flawed? They usually received’t simply eat it?” Gouker wrote on X earlier this week.
The 49ers received 12 matches, however the buyer was solely reimbursed somewhat than the wager being settled as a win.
This was me within the discord. Completely insane. If anybody has any extra details about what I can do to get Kalshi to pay out, DMs are open https://t.co/4kqzOtoqRa
— Hayden (@capdcrd2) January 7, 2026
Kalshi acknowledged that “these markets had been erroneously decided early, so everybody was reimbursed value plus charges.”
Prediction Markets should not handled with the identical scrutiny as common sportsbooks. Following these tweets by Gouker, Kalshi has reversed the result and has paid out on these profitable bets.
Featured Picture: Polymarket
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