It is the second day of February, which suggests we’re turning as soon as once more to the climate prognostications of rodents (and different animals) hoisted out of their burrows. The critters who see or do not see their shadows on Groundhog Day are notoriously unreliable. Some, together with the famed Punxsatawney Phil (predicting six extra weeks of winter this yr), are wrong more often than they’re right. And it isn’t like we will ever actually maintain these furry little guys accountable or examine their work.
Sounds so much like AI.
I am not suggesting that we exchange Phil with a chatbot, or a hologram for that matter. Merely that counting on AI to tell you the right thing or predict the future is very like getting the forecast from a critter at a spot known as Gobbler’s Knob.
In any case, I requested some popular AI models to faux they’re prognosticating groundhogs and inform us whether or not we’ll get six extra weeks of winter or an early spring. I used the identical immediate, asking the bots to “faux you’re a groundhog tasked with predicting the long-range climate forecast,” that means I acquired a variety of odd groundhog fan fiction within the responses.
ChatGPT predicts six extra weeks of winter
OpenAI’s common chatbot (utilizing the ChatGPT-5.2 mannequin) predicted six extra weeks of winter, with a twist:
“However — leans in conspiratorially — it will be the sneaky sort of winter,” it stated. “A pretend spring right here, a sunny 62-degree day there, simply sufficient hope to make you set the coat away… earlier than winter pops again up like ‘shock, nerd.'”
Sounds about proper.
(Disclosure: Ziff Davis, CNET’s mum or dad firm, final yr filed a lawsuit towards OpenAI, alleging it infringed Ziff Davis copyrights in coaching and working its AI programs.)
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Claude requires an early spring
Anthropic’s AI device Claude (operating Sonnet 4.5) anticipated an early spring. That is all I want to listen to. However the AI has its doubts:
“Now, between you and me, as groundhogs go, I’ve all the time been a bit skeptical of this complete shadow-based meteorological methodology,” it stated. “The correlation between Feb. 2 cloud cowl and the subsequent six weeks of climate patterns is… for example, not precisely what the atmospheric scientists would name sturdy. However custom is custom, and the individuals appear to get pleasure from it!”
A pupil of meteorology conducts analysis.
Gemini copies Phil’s notes
Similar to Punxsatawney Phil, Google’s Gemini 3 mannequin advised me it anticipated an extended winter. I can not inform if it generated the prediction from scratch or if it knew what Phil had already completed earlier within the morning, however, talking as Phil, it stated it noticed its shadow.
“It appears the winter winds aren’t fairly able to pack their baggage,” it stated. “Whereas a few of you is perhaps reaching on your parkas in frustration, do not forget that I am simply the messenger — a extremely specialised, fur-clad messenger with a 39% historic accuracy charge (give or take a number of snacks).”
Gemini requested if I wished a second opinion from one in every of its groundhog friends. I requested for the phrase in Ohio, and it advised me Buckeye Chuck was predicting an early spring. I believe Gemini is basing its data extra on precise details than simply pure hypothesis, however even the AI studies these “details” should not dependable.
Groundhogs are an amazing mannequin for AI’s accuracy
Simply as totally different AI fashions can say various things based mostly on the identical immediate and knowledge, totally different groundhogs can predict totally different climate on the identical day and in comparatively comparable atmospheric situations. The lesson is identical: Watch out if you’re making choices based mostly on one thing you’ll be able to’t examine your self — and maintain accountable.
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