The projected scarcity of reminiscence chips worldwide may have a extra critical influence on smartphone gross sales in 2026 than beforehand projected, in accordance with new knowledge from Worldwide Information Company Worldwide. Whereas the corporate just in November had estimated a drop of between 0.9% and 5.2% (the latter being its “pessimistic state of affairs”), now it sees a 12.9% decline this yr, based mostly on its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
“What we’re witnessing shouldn’t be a short lived squeeze, however a tsunami-like shock originating within the reminiscence provide chain, with ripple results spreading throughout all the client electronics trade,” Francisco Jeronimo, vp for Worldwide Shopper Gadgets at IDC, stated in an announcement.
The toughest-hit corporations are anticipated to be these promoting to the decrease finish of the market, which may’t take up the upper element prices whereas sustaining worthwhile margins. In consequence, Jeronimo says, a lot of these gamers will cross the added prices on to customers.
That additionally contains regional markets just like the Center East and Africa that promote largely cheap smartphones, which might see a steep 20.6% drop year-over-year.
IDC predicts a steep drop in smartphone gross sales for 2026.
Against this, IDC expects Apple and Samsung to be higher in a position to stand up to the disaster. “As smaller and low-end-positioned Android distributors wrestle with rising prices, Apple and Samsung couldn’t solely climate the storm however doubtlessly increase market share because the aggressive panorama tightens,” stated Jeronimo.
Reminiscence has turn out to be scarce as a result of insatiable demand to feed generative AI. Basically the entire reminiscence set to be manufactured this yr is already earmarked. What began as a requirement for graphics processors has expanded to different parts. For instance, exhausting drive producer Western Digital introduced in early February that it had already sold out of its supply for 2026.
“We count on consolidation as smaller gamers exit, and low-end distributors face sharp cargo declines amid provide constraints and decrease demand at greater value factors,” stated Nabila Popal, senior analysis director at IDC, projecting a 14% rise within the common promoting value of smartphones to $523.
Popal expects reminiscence costs to stabilize by the center of 2027, however would not see them coming right down to earlier ranges. The sub-$100 phase, made up of roughly 171 million gadgets, shall be “completely uneconomical,” she stated. “Briefly, there isn’t a return to enterprise as common for distributors and customers.”
