Robinhood shares moved decrease after the corporate launched its fourth-quarter earnings, as traders weighed robust headline outcomes in opposition to lingering questions in regards to the agency’s growing emphasis on prediction markets and its plan to funnel these customers into longer-term funding merchandise.
The corporate reported report fourth-quarter revenue of $1.28 billion, up 27% yr over yr, and full-year income of $4.5 billion, a 52% improve from 2024. Web earnings for the quarter got here in at $605 million, or $0.66 per diluted share, whereas funded prospects rose 7% yr over yr to 27 million. Regardless of these good points, the inventory declined as consideration shifted to Robinhood’s evolving enterprise combine and longer-term technique.
On the earnings name, CEO Vlad Tenev pointed to prediction markets as the corporate’s fastest-growing product. “In This autumn, prediction market volumes doubled, greater than doubled but once more, with over 12 billion contracts traded in 2025, which is the primary full yr of prediction markets,” he mentioned, including that prospects had already traded greater than 4 billion contracts early in 2026.
Tenev framed the chance in formidable phrases. “I believe we’re simply at the start of a prediction market tremendous cycle that would drive trillions in annual quantity over time,” he mentioned, citing upcoming world sporting occasions, enlargement past sports activities, and the launch of Rothera, Robinhood’s three way partnership with Susquehanna Worldwide Group, as key drivers.
Robinhood prediction markets providing attracts undesirable consideration
However a separate a part of the decision rapidly drew consideration and criticism on-line. Whereas discussing buyer acquisition, Tenev mentioned Robinhood is seeing “an rising variety of folks coming to Robinhood… not as a result of they wish to commerce equities or crypto, however as a result of they’ve heard of our prediction markets providing.” He added that when customers enter by means of prediction markets, the corporate goals to “simply cross-sell you to, , issues like retirement or different merchandise.”
That framing sparked sharp reactions on social media. “So that you’re basically touchdown prospects as a playing app now, and also you’re cross-selling IRAs to folks throwing $100 on the Patriots,” one consumer wrote on X.
so that you're basically touchdown prospects as a playing app now. and youre cross-selling IRAs to folks throwing $100 on the Patriots . very good $HOOD pic.twitter.com/WCCF7FPXOI
— Hunter SPX Thompson
(@CoorsLightCEO) February 10, 2026
One other consumer quipped, “The bull case for HOOD is that you simply’ll… checks transcript… cross-sell prediction market gamblers retirement accounts?”
The pushback doubtlessly reveals that leaning into event-driven buying and selling undercuts Robinhood’s pitch as a long-term investing platform. Whereas the corporate stresses that prediction markets will broaden past sports activities, the class remains to be carefully related to short-term, high-frequency hypothesis.
Tenev pushed again on the concept that the enterprise is overly sports-centric. He famous that non-sports contracts are already gaining traction, pointing to a authorities shutdown contract that drove vital quantity after the NFL season ended. Over time, he argued, prediction markets will broaden as extra contracts are added and built-in extra deeply into the app.
Chief Monetary Officer Shiv Verma struck an identical tone, saying prediction markets are diversifying throughout sports activities and non-sports classes and turning into extra economically enticing as Robinhood good points better management over pricing and monetization by means of Rothera.
Nonetheless, the inventory’s response suggests traders stay unconvinced that fast development in prediction markets will translate into sturdy, high-quality earnings or that customers drawn in by speculative contracts will meaningfully undertake retirement and wealth-building merchandise.
Featured picture: Robinhood
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