Elon Musk, the richest man on Earth, is excellent at getting cash. His observe document of predicting the longer term is much less stellar.
By the years, Musk has made several outlandish forecasts—about self-driving cars, about space exploration, about brain chips, about robotics—that haven’t panned out. The Tesla CEO and former steward of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency appears not less than a bit self-aware. Throughout a shock look and his debut on the World Financial Discussion board in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, he concluded with one thing like a mission assertion: “Usually, for high quality of life, it’s higher to err on the aspect of being an optimist and incorrect than a pessimist and proper.”
Nonetheless, when one’s firms have their palms in so many industries—autos and robotics (Tesla), area journey and telecommunications (SpaceX), social media (X), synthetic intelligence (xAI), infrastructure (the Boring Firm), and neurotechnology (Neuralink)—even off-the-cuff predictions can transfer international markets. Listed here are a number of prognostications Musk made on Thursday:
Aliens Don’t Exist (Most likely)
Elon Musk opened his Davos remarks—a dialog with good friend and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink—with a dialogue of his values, and some jokes about aliens. “Now we have 9,000 satellites up there and never as soon as have we needed to maneuver round an alien spaceship,” Musk stated. “We have to assume that life and consciousness are extraordinarily uncommon and it would solely be us.”
Humanoid Robots Will Remodel Human Life—and Go on Sale in 2027
Musk began making guarantees about Optimus, the corporate’s humanoid robotic, in 2021. Most just lately, he stated Tesla—now rebranded as a robotics and autonomy firm—would make hundreds of Optimus robots in 2025. However the firm is reportedly still struggling to get Optimus’ hand to work. That didn’t cease Musk repeating in Davos a few of his most far-reaching claims about the best way the product would change human life without end.
“If we’ve ubiquitous AI that’s basically free, or near it, and ubiquitous robotics, you’ll have an explosion, an growth of the worldwide economic system that’s actually past all precedent,” Musk stated. What does that imply for you? Billions of robots powered by synthetic intelligence will outnumber people and “saturate all human wants,” he stated. “You gained’t have the ability to consider one thing to ask the robotic for at a sure level, there can be such an abundance of products and companies.”
However first, in fact, Tesla must begin promoting Optimus, which Musk stated would occur late subsequent yr.
Robotaxis Will Be “Very Widespread” within the US by 2027
In 2025, after years of self-driving guarantees, Tesla lastly launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, albeit with a human safety monitor sitting in each passenger seat. That didn’t cease Musk from asserting that many of the US inhabitants would have entry to robotaxi by the top of that yr.
Now, in 2026, Musk is transferring the goalposts once more. He stated Thursday that his firm’s robotaxis can be “very widespread by the top of this yr within the US.” If historical past is a information, that gained’t occur—however the firm is engaged on launching robotaxi service in a handful of states with laxer laws, together with Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.
Human Getting older Is a “Very Solvable Downside”
Musk acknowledged that he hasn’t spent a lot time investigating human growing old. However he predicted that there can be an answer. “After we discover what causes growing old, we’ll discover it’s extremely apparent,” he stated. Get to it, Silicon Valley peers.
SpaceX Will Full a Absolutely Reusable Rocket This Yr
SpaceX has been engaged on its reusable rocket platform Starship for a decade, and in these years, has missed a number of of Musk’s massive area deadlines. He predicted in 2020 {that a} crewed Mars mission would launch by 2024. He stated that Starship would attain orbit by 2022, although the corporate didn’t pull it off till final yr.
At Davos, Musk repeated a promise from final yr: that Starship can be absolutely reusable by the top of this yr, chopping area journey prices by “an element of 100” and ultimately permitting area freight to compete with airplane freight costs. SpaceX has run profitable take a look at flights just lately, however a completely reusable rocket by the top of this yr could possibly be a stretch.
AI Will Turn into Smarter Than a Human This Yr—and Smarter Than All of Humanity in 2035
Musk has been each deeply concerned in AI’s improvement and deeply doomer-y about its which means for years. (See: his ongoing lawsuits in opposition to OpenAI, its founders, and Microsoft.) In Davos, Musk as soon as once more talked about his want to keep away from a Terminator-like future. However he additionally indicated that it’s coming. “The speed at which AI is progressing, I feel we’ve AI that’s smarter than any human this yr, and no later than subsequent yr,” he stated. By 2035, it will likely be “smarter than all of humanity, collectively.”
Per regular, whether or not Musk will get this one proper comes all the way down to definitions. What does “smarter” imply? This month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he didn’t imagine researchers had been anyplace near creating what he known as “God AI.” The expertise is nice at discrete duties, however doing every part? ”That ‘some day’ might be on biblical scales, on galactic scales,” Huang stated.
